| Board List | |
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| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/04/20 12:42:33 AM #479 | Biden is speaking now. Very odd timing. He clearly does not expect to win tonight. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/04/20 12:37:12 AM #475 | Fulton is already 59% in according to NYT but they're very close to 100% of 2016 votes and I question that turnout would be up 60% so I'm not sure I buy that. Dekalb is the goldmine for Democrat votes and it's only 31% in. Hopefully they can report some more results soon.....it's past midnight in Georgia and they've been counting since 7. Come on people! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/04/20 12:26:09 AM #466 | Pennsylvania hits 60% estimated vote in and Trump's lead has gone up to 15.1% and 650k. Also, some of the Philly vote has already come in - Montgomery is at 64%, Chester is at 55%, Delaware is at 59%, and Philadelphia is at 43%. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/04/20 12:19:28 AM #462 | Trump now leads by 14.3% in Pennsylvania with 57% in. Lead stands at 582k. 9.8% lead in Michigan with 52% in, and a vote lead of 288k. 4.9% lead in Wisconsin with 66% in. Vote lead of 118k. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/04/20 12:06:43 AM #450 | Trump won Ohio by 8.1% in 2016 and he is now ahead by 8.1%. I think that's a good sign for the other Midwest states - if he does the same matching he wins WI, MI, and PA. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/04/20 12:00:36 AM #448 | Trump now up 5 points in Iowa. Phew. Trump is up 4.8% in Wisconsin with 61% in - the governor says he expects to finish counting tonight so I am seeing some hope here. Trump still up 10.4% in Michigan with 49% in and 14.4% in Pennsylvania with 51% in. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 11:44:51 PM #439 | We hit 50% of the estimated votes counted in Pennsylvania. Trump leads by 14.3%. That's 512k votes. I am super nervous. Seeing a lot of remaining vote in the Philadelphia area. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 11:36:08 PM #430 | Is the NYT map slow on reporting the Arizona results? I'm seeing it still at 75%. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 10:55:54 PM #400 | The Democrats spent months talking about how they were going to radically transform America, pack the Supreme Court, etc. They shouldn't be surprised that Republicans see this as an existential threat. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 10:54:04 PM #398 | Trump now up 7 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, 11 points in Michigan, 2 points in Wisconsin. I am really curious how much of the vote that's being counted now in PA is mail-in vote. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 10:35:09 PM #383 | 9 point lead for Trump in Pennsylvania now. 5 points in Ohio - looks like I undershot Trump in Ohio. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 10:31:40 PM #377 | Corrik7 posted... Explain arizona being okay right now 75% of the vote is in. Biden is a little under 9 points up. The vast majority of that is early/mail-in vote. Trump just needs to win the remaining votes with a +27 clip, or 63-36. He's been running above that with the day-of vote in other states, like Ohio and North Carolina. It's still totally winnable for either candidate. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 10:27:13 PM #368 | I think Trump is okay in Arizona. He just needs +27 with the remaining votes. Given how day-of votes have tracked tonight, that's plenty doable. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 10:15:52 PM #352 | Trump is at 68% on PredictIt. Although PredictIt has crazy levels of vigorish right now. Trump 68 cents Biden 51 cents LOL. That house advantage is unconscionably high. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 10:11:12 PM #345 | 1369 votes left in NC. 14% left. On pace. Biden is up 11% with the mail vote drop in Arizona (69% of estimated votes). Cautiously optimistic, as that day-of vote is going to be very strong for Trump. That, and the big cities of Phoenix and Tucson are in the initial drop, while some red counties haven't reported anything yet. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 10:07:09 PM #343 | I've been saying it for the last 4 years and it's obvious that Biden is not going to do any better than barely scrape by and probably won't even do that, so I think I'm entitled to an "I told you so," whether or not Trump ends up pulling this one out. The Democrats ran the exact same campaign as 2016, and they're getting a very similar result. That should not be a surprise. If you want a different result, you need to listen to the electorate and change your strategy. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 10:04:19 PM #341 | And Trump with a +115k update to surge into a 102k lead in Ohio. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 9:59:58 PM #337 | Although no results are in yet, I am now quite confident Trump flips Nevada. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 9:57:22 PM #335 | And there it is. Lead change in Pennsylvania. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 9:54:48 PM #334 | 30k left in NC. 13k left in OH. Biden's PA lead is also down to 17k although I'm fully aware of that whole red mirage we're expecting. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 9:48:45 PM #333 | Trump up 360k in Georgia, a lot more than his final margin of 222k in 2016. I'm thinking Biden is going to catch up some here when Atlanta votes come in in force. Hillary only won the metro area by 380k in 2016 though, and a bunch of Fulton and Cobb are already in. So I'm optimistic, but not ready to call it yet. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 9:44:48 PM #331 | Told you guys to wait on Ohio a bit! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 9:41:18 PM #328 | All the people with Biden winning Florida already have a big hole in their map. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 9:34:02 PM #322 | Also, the big surge in Ohio is in progress. Trump has cut 300k out of a 400k vote lead. Still only 60% in. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 9:33:08 PM #320 | Lead change in Texas with 73% in! Trump now ahead. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 9:32:11 PM #319 | Biden's lead in NC is down to 85k. Nearly halved from 25 minutes ago. Still 20% left. At that pace, Trump would break through to the lead with 13-14% left. Trump's lead is over 315k in Georgia, but there's still not much in votes from the Atlanta area so far. Makes me kind of nervous. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 9:10:08 PM #310 | And Trump is now at +3 in Florida. Still 8% more to go. +4 is looking likely. +5 looking like it's possible, even. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 9:04:42 PM #307 | Biden's lead in NC down to 152k. Glad to see we're finally moving. 25% of votes left. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 8:54:36 PM #303 | Trump is also winning in Wayne County (Detroit). What a board vote! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 8:52:06 PM #302 | NYT has Trump up to 77% in North Carolina. I hope they're right, because Biden's persistent lead is making me nervous. Still over 200k with 70% reporting. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 8:40:20 PM #296 | LordoftheMorons posted... I wonder if the needle for GA/NC take into account the FL results (since they're correlated). It's not only Miami. Trump is already outperforming 2016 in Hillsborough (Tampa) and Orange (Orlando). I think he will be outperforming 2016 in Pinellas (St. Petersburg) once more day-of votes come in and he'll make a good run at it in Jacksonville. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 8:37:49 PM #295 | Corrik7 posted... If trump wins I am gonna get slayed by people. Ugh Why? If he wins there's no need to blame you for anything. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 8:37:13 PM #294 | Whoa. Allegheny County (that's Pittsburgh) flipped red.....way red. Currently Trump is winning 69-30 and has an 80k lead in Allegheny County. 28% of estimated votes in according to the NYT. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 8:31:30 PM #291 | Corrik7 posted... Idk how. He looks like he is doing terrible in north Carolina In every state that counts mail votes first, Trump is going to have a huge surge. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 8:29:18 PM #289 | The Georgia needle is up to 86% for Trump. The North Carolina needle has moved in Trump's favor and is now at 58% for Trump. And Trump is now at +2 in Florida. +3 is looking good, +4 is looking possible. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 8:22:59 PM #283 | 80% of the votes in so far in PA are from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. It's a bit early to call it. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 8:15:01 PM #279 | If they hadn't wrongly called it in 2000 they would have already called it. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 8:11:55 PM #277 | LOL Biden's vote lead (not percentage) in Miami is actually lower than it was when they started counting. Trump is actually winning the day-of vote. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 8:10:42 PM #276 | Hurrah for Mitch! Kentucky voters wisely chose to keep their all-powerful ruler of the Senate. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 8:06:44 PM #273 | First votes in from Pennsylvania (in Pittsburg). Biden crushing it, but only 9% reporting. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 7:50:23 PM #268 | Corrik7 posted... Can't see Trump losing with this miami-dade cut tho the tampa/jacksonville flips are concerning. Trump has been gaining steadily in Tampa/St. Pete since they've been counting the election day votes. Went from an 8% lead to 1% in like 40 minutes in Pinellas. I think he pulls that one out, and loses by less than 2016 in Hillsborough. Haven't tracked Jacksonville. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 7:44:57 PM #266 | masterplum posted... I am confused why NYT is so confidant. Just compare with 2016, and remember that the votes that have been counted already are mostly early votes, which were very favorable to Biden. In the counties that have had substantial day of votes come in, Trump has already made large cuts. At this point I would predict Trump +3. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 7:41:14 PM #264 | And now Biden's lead in Pinellas is down to 6,000 votes and just 1%. NYT showing 11% still outstanding. I think Trump's got it and has a decent chance of outdoing his +1 there from last time. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 7:37:06 PM #262 | Now Broward has dropped the bulk of its early votes. Biden +33 with the day-of votes still to be counted vs. +35 for Hillary, so he'll be miles behind on percentage, although he may eke out a slightly higher vote margin than Hillary due to higher turnout. But that's not good enough when turnout was higher across the state. Biden's got one more big vote drop in Orlando and then he's done in Florida. Cautiously optimistic about Trump +2 in Florida. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 7:33:54 PM #260 | I LOVE the early vote in Virginia. 66-33. Every single time it's like this. The Republican Party has a stronger early vote in Virginia than Crono does in these contests. I don't think we've ever had a character come back from 66-33. 61/39 was about the largest. But having seen Virginia before, I have little doubt Biden will put it out and easily. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 7:31:44 PM #259 | Biden retakes the lead in Florida with a lot of Palm Beach votes coming in, but I doubt he'll hold it for long. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 7:26:34 PM #256 | There's the lead change! --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 7:26:16 PM #255 | Biden's % lead in Pinellas has already fallen from 8% to 5%. Trump might be able to pull out a win there. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 7:23:04 PM #251 | With that performance in Miami, 81% might be undershooting it. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
| Topic | Election 2020 Statistics and Discussion |
| red sox 777 11/03/20 7:20:18 PM #248 | Miami-Dade just reported over 1 million votes (more than 100% of turnout last time). Biden is leading by 90k. Last time, Hillary won by 290k. Those are almost assuredly the early votes being reported, and while Democrats were showing a narrow advantage in election day turnout in Dade county, it's not going to be by a lot. Maybe 10k votes tops. So Biden has to make back 190k votes lost in Miami-Dade plus Trump's margin of 113k from last time. Seems like a tall order. --- September 1, 2003; November 4, 2007; September 2, 2013 Congratulations to DP Oblivion in the Guru Contest! |
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